2012 Candidates - Dec - 2011

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Perhaps it it time to drop this feature. My predictions have been so accurate (see recent Gingrich rating string) that readers have known the outcome of the election for some time now.

An interested citizen's view of the possible candidates for the major party nominations for president in 2012.
The sequences in parentheses are my wild guesses about the percentage chance that each of them had monthly, Jan-current month, of getting the nomination.
My principal reaction to each is listed afterword. If you will point out stuff to me I can improve this description over time.
The YAMSLT test can be found here.

Americans elect may produce a candidate too.

DEMOCRATIC
Barack Obama (99) I will consider him again, but he is worrying me.

REPUBLICAN
Mitt Romney (25-25-26-24-25-30-30-33-35-35-50-50) I would consider him. Some say he has a problem in that the Romney health plan in MA is similar to Obama’s national plan. Some say that it is therefore a contradiction for Romney to oppose Obamacare. I think not and I now think he can make the case. Does the right wing want to feel good or have a chance to win?

Newt Gingrich (4-4-4-4-03-03-01-01-1-10-13-33) - He is seeming even more like a serious possibility. He could be the last non Mitt standing. We need a person of big ideas and he has always tried to be that. Unfortunately one of those big ideas was to take $1.6 million from Fannie and Freddie. He is an experienced professional politician. But he is also Newt Gingrich. [Also, I would like to hear him reaffirm his commitment to the 1st amendment. (……… his position on Park 51: not only that they should not, but that Muslims do NOT even have the right to, build there.)]

Rick Perry (x-x-x-x-x-x-06-22-25-30-25-20-10) The predicted chance of implosion has been confirmed and recovery is now harder. The main questions now are: Does he pass the yamslt test? [ all of those questions that were asked before seem to have the same answer-no. Can he become a debater? Is America ready for another brash Texas Governor? Is his jobs record that good? Can he correct his immigration problem? ] His recovery seems less likely every day.

Ron Paul (x-x-x-x-01-02-03-05-08-05-04-03) The libertarian's delight.

Jon Huntsman (x-x-1-1-01-05-06-01-05-0-3) Huntsman is resurrecting himself. He is doing what he hoped in New Hampshire and the rise of Gingrich could slow Romney.


The candidate's below are (I think) out of the running and barely possible (altogether 1%).

Herman Cain (x-x-x-x-x-x-01-01-1-5-12-0) GWTW
Chris Christie (x-x ... x-x-10-0) GWTW
Michelle Bachman (x-x-x-01-01-10-20-13-20-0) A lightweight. Fails YAMSLT. GWTW
Rick Santorum (x-x-x-01-02-01-01-01-1-1-0) - Too far right for me. Fails the YAMSLT.
Sarah Palin (20-20-21-16-16-19-3-01-1-1-0) - She is playing games. Fails the YAMSLT.
Tim Pawlenty (05-07-08-16-14-20-25-15-1-1-0) - GWTW
Gary Johnson (x-x-x-x-01-01-01-01-01-01-0) Will highlight the drug prohibition issue.

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