I disagree with Hightower.

What you will find here is: a centrist's view of current events;
a collection of thoughts, arguments, and observations
that I have found appealing and/or amusing over the years;
and, if you choose, your civil contributions which will make it into a conversation.

He not busy bein' born, is busy dyin'. - Bob Dylan

Please refer to participants only by their designated identities.

suggestion for US citizens: When a form asks for your race, write in: -- American

Monday, November 7, 2011

ALL OUT?

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I just heard Senator John McCain describing the agreed to consequences of "failure" by the budget supercommittee as being "aspirational". That is, they might not do what they said they were going to do. That is, what was promised to get the debt ceiling increase approved was just another insincere promise.

I am moving closer and closer to believing that we should take everyone of these clowns that are up for reelection next year just vote them ALL OUT.
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Herman Cain RIP

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Put a fork in him. He's done.
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Saturday, November 5, 2011

pictures

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Some nice color pictures from America circa 1940 at this Denver Post blog.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Americans Elect 3

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As I said earlier this is a very interesting idea. I urge you to look at it on their website. You can also look to Rise of the Center.

Mayor Bloomberg on the financial crisis

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"I hear your complaints," Bloomberg said. "Some of them are totally unfounded. It was not the banks that created the mortgage crisis. It was, plain and simple, Congress who forced everybody to go and give mortgages to people who were on the cusp. Now, I'm not saying I'm sure that was terrible policy, because a lot of those people who got homes still have them and they wouldn't have gotten them without that.

"But they were the ones who pushed Fannie and Freddie to make a bunch of loans that were imprudent, if you will. They were the ones that pushed the banks to loan to everybody. And now we want to go vilify the banks because it's one target, it's easy to blame them and congress certainly isn't going to blame themselves. At the same time, Congress is trying to pressure banks to loosen their lending standards to make more loans. This is exactly the same speech they criticized them for."

Hear it here. Scroll down (there)for the video.
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Tuesday, November 1, 2011

2012 Candidates - Nov - 2011

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An interested citizen's view of the possible candidates for the major party nominations for president in 2012.
The sequences in parentheses are my wild guesses about the percentage chance that each of them had monthly, Jan-current month, of getting the nomination.
My principal reaction to each is listed afterword. If you will point out stuff to me I can improve this description over time.
The YAMSLT test can be found here.

Americans elect may produce a candidate too.

DEMOCRATIC
Barack Obama (99) I will consider him again, but he is worrying me.

REPUBLICAN
Mitt Romney (25-25-26-24-25-30-30-33-35-35-50) I would consider him. Some say he has a problem in that the Romney health plan in MA is similar to Obama’s national plan. Some say that it is therefore a contradiction for Romney to oppose Obamacare. I think not and I now think he can make the case. Does the right wing want to feel good or have a chance to win?

Rick Perry (x-x-x-x-x-x-06-22-25-30-25-20) The predicted chance of implosion has been confirmed and recovery is now harder. The main questions now are: Does he pass the yamslt test? Can he become a debater? Is America ready for another brash Texas Governor? Is his jobs record that good? Can he correct his immigration problem? If he does recover it is still a two person race: Romney-Perry. (except see Gingrich)

Newt Gingrich (4-4-4-4-03-03-01-01-1-10-13) - He is starting to seem like a serious possibility. I have not heard him indicate a restored commitment to the 1st amendment. (……… his position on Park 51 not only that they should not, but that Muslims do NOT even have the right to, build there.) He could be the last non Mitt standing.

Herman Cain (x-x-x-x-x-x-01-01-1-5-12) The bloom is coming off of the 9-9-9 rose. I still think he won't last. [Last time I said: Someone will soon point out that if you turn his plan upside down it is drummmrrrooollllll - 666- the mark of the beast. I thought it would be comic not a candidate (Bachmann)].

Ron Paul (x-x-x-x-01-02-03-05-08-05-04) The libertarian's delight.

The candidate's below are (I think) out of the running, but still barely possible (altogether 1%).

Jon Huntsman (x-x-1-1-01-05-06-01-05-0)
Chris Christie (x-x ... x-x-10-0) GWTW
Michelle Bachman (x-x-x-01-01-10-20-13-20-1) A lightweight. Fails YAMSLT. GWTW
Rick Santorum (x-x-x-01-02-01-01-01-1-1-0) - Too far right for me. Fails the YAMSLT.
Sarah Palin (20-20-21-16-16-19-3-01-1-1-0) - She is playing games. Fails the YAMSLT.
Tim Pawlenty (05-07-08-16-14-20-25-15-1-1-0) - GWTW
Gary Johnson (x-x-x-x-01-01-01-01-01-01-0) Will highlight the drug prohibition issue.

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Monday, October 31, 2011

The Divider vs. the Thinker

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While Obama readies an ugly campaign, Paul Ryan gives a serious account of what ails America.

By PEGGY NOONAN in the WSJ

People are increasingly fearing the divisions within, even the potential coming apart of, our country. Rich/poor, black/white, young/old, red/blue: The things that divide us are not new, yet there's a sense now that the glue that held us together for more than two centuries has thinned and cracked with age. That it was allowed to thin and crack, that the modern era wore it out.

What was the glue? A love of country based on a shared knowledge of how and why it began; a broad feeling among our citizens that there was something providential in our beginnings; a gratitude that left us with a sense that we should comport ourselves in a way unlike the other nations of the world, that more was expected of us, and not unjustly—
"To whom much is given much is expected"; a general understanding that we were something new in history, a nation founded on ideals and aspirations—liberty, equality—and not mere grunting tribal wants. We were from Europe but would not be European: No formal class structure here, no limits, from the time you touched ground all roads would lead forward. You would be treated not as your father was but as you deserved. That's from "The Killer Angels," a historical novel about the Civil War fought to right a wrong the Founders didn't right. We did in time, and at great cost. What a country.

But there is a broad fear out there that we are coming apart, or rather living through the moment we'll look back on as the beginning of the Great Coming Apart. Economic crisis, cultural stresses: "Half the country isn't speaking to the other half," a moderate Democrat said the other day. She was referring to liberals of her acquaintance who know little of the South and who don't wish to know of it, who write it off as apart from them, maybe beneath them.

To add to the unease, in New York at least, there's a lot of cognitive dissonance. If you are a New Yorker, chances are pretty high you hate what the great investment firms did the past 15 years or so to upend the economy. Yet you feel on some level like you have to be protective of them, because Wall Street pays the bills of the City of New York. Wall Street tax receipts and Wall Street business—restaurants, stores—keep the city afloat. So you want them up and operating and vital, you don't want them to leave—that would only make things worse for people in trouble, people just getting by, and young people starting out. You know you have to preserve them just when you'd most like to deck them.

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Where is the president in all this? He doesn't seem to be as worried about his country's continuance as his own. He's out campaigning and talking of our problems, but he seems oddly oblivious to or detached from America's deeper fears. And so he feels free to exploit divisions. It's all the rich versus the rest, and there are a lot more of the latter.

Twenty twelve won't be "as sexy" as 2008, he said this week. It will be all brute force. Which will only add to the feeling of unease.

Occupy Wall Street makes an economic critique that echoes the president's, though more bluntly: the rich are bad, down with the elites. It's all ad hoc, more poetry slam than platform. Too bad it's not serious in its substance.

There's a lot to rebel against, to want to throw off. If they want to make a serious economic and political critique, they should make the one Gretchen Morgenson and Joshua Rosner make in "Reckless Endangerment": that real elites in Washington rigged the system for themselves and their friends, became rich and powerful, caused the great cratering, and then "slipped quietly from the scene."

It is a blow-by-blow recounting of how politicians—Democrats and Republicans—passed the laws that encouraged the banks to make the loans that would never be repaid, and that would result in your lost job. Specifically it is the story of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage insurers, and how their politically connected CEOs, especially Fannie's Franklin Raines and James Johnson, took actions that tanked the American economy and walked away rich. It began in the early 1990s, in the Clinton administration, and continued under the Bush administration, with the help of an entrenched Congress that wanted only two things: to receive campaign contributions and to be re-elected.

The story is a scandal, and the book should be the bible of Occupy Wall Street. But they seem as incapable of seeing government as part of the problem as Republicans seem of seeing business as part of the problem.

Which gets us to Rep. Paul Ryan. Mr. Ryan receives much praise, but I don't think his role in the current moment has been fully recognized. He is doing something unique in national politics. He thinks. He studies. He reads. Then he comes forward to speak, calmly and at some length, about what he believes to be true. He defines a problem and offers solutions, often providing the intellectual and philosophical rationale behind them. Conservatives naturally like him—they agree with him—but liberals and journalists inclined to disagree with him take him seriously and treat him with respect.

This week he spoke on "The American Idea" at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. He scored the president as too small for the moment, as "petty" in his arguments and avoidant of the decisions entailed in leadership. At times like this, he said, "the temptation to exploit fear and envy returns." Politicians divide in order to "evade responsibility for their failures" and to advance their interests.

The president, he said, has made a shift in his appeal to the electorate. "Instead of appealing to the hope and optimism that were hallmarks of his first campaign, he has launched his second campaign by preying on the emotions of fear, envy and resentment."

But Republicans, in their desire to defend free economic activity, shouldn't be snookered by unthinking fealty to big business. They should never defend—they should actively oppose—the kind of economic activity that has contributed so heavily to the crisis. Here Mr. Ryan slammed "corporate welfare and crony capitalism."

"Why have we extended an endless supply of taxpayer credit to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, instead of demanding that their government guarantee be wound down and their taxpayer subsidies ended?" Why are tax dollars being wasted on bankrupt, politically connected solar energy firms like Solyndra? "Why is Washington wasting your money on entrenched agribusiness?"

Rather than raise taxes on individuals, we should "lower the amount of government spending the wealthy now receive." The "true sources of inequity in this country," he continued, are "corporate welfare that enriches the powerful, and empty promises that betray the powerless." The real class warfare that threatens us is "a class of bureaucrats and connected crony capitalists trying to rise above the rest of us, call the shots, rig the rules, and preserve their place atop society."

If more Republicans thought—and spoke—like this, the party would flourish. People would be less fearful for the future. And Mr. Obama wouldn't be seeing his numbers go up.

This came to me from Adam Madison.

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Perry's Flat Tax 2

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Whether Perry's proposal is actually more regressive than the current would depend on what percentage of their total income the wealthier people actually pay now. It is certainly true that with their deductions what they pay now (as a percentage of total income) is less than their marginal rate. Probably, with Perry's plan, their taxes as a percentage of total income would go up for some (those who have a lot of other deductions) and down for others.

One note the Rich Family E in the post may have to pay a bit more (than indicated there) because Perry would disallow deductions for those with income over 500K.

As Tom noted (in his comment to the previous post on this topic) this is not progressive enough for some.
Presumably one could add an extra tax for those whose income is over some amount X.

Finally, I like the flat tax but I think it will have to be higher to obtain the income that the government now gets from the income tax.
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Thursday, October 27, 2011

Juan Williams Firing

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To see how it looks to him one year later go to
One Year Since NPR Fired Me -- What Are the Lessons Learned?

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Perry's Flat Tax

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I like the flat tax idea with large individual deductions(otherwise, the fewer deductions the better) which will keep it progressive. In this case the individual deductions are $12,500 per family member and, in addition, mortgage interest, state and local taxes, and charitable contributions are also deducted. Your income minus all of those deductions is your taxable income. The tax rate is 20% of that taxable income.

Let me point out a few things about it that get lost in the propaganda from those who want to use the tax code to promote whatever it is that they want to promote.

The flat tax in general and this one in particular is not regressive. Consider a few examples for a family of 4 with this flat tax.

Family A makes 50,000 and pays no income taxes because their deductions are 4 x 12,500 = 50,000 leaving no taxable income.
They actually pay 0% of total income.
This applies to any family of 4 with income (after deductions) of less than 50,000.

Family B makes 70,000 and has a total St and local taxes, charitable contributions, and home mortgage interest of 10,000. They would have 60,000 in deductions and would pay 20% of the remaining 10,000 in taxable income which would be 0.2 x 10,000 = $2,000 in taxes.
They actually pay 2000/70,000 or 2.86% of total income.

Family C makes 150,000 and has a total of 20,000 in deductions. Their remaining taxable income is 80,000 (=150,000 - 50000 - 20,000) on which they too will pay 20% which is $16,000.
That is 16000 / 150000 and They actually pay 10.667% of their total income.

Richer family D makes 400,000 and has 40,000 in deductions. Taxable income is 310,000 (=400,000 - 50,000-40,000). (Notice that a much bigger share of their income is taxable.)
20% of that is .20 x 310,000 = 62,000.
That is 62,000 / 400,000 = .155 and they actually pay 15.5% of their total income.

Rich family E makes 1.5 million and has 70,000 in other deductions. Their total deductions are 120,000. Therefore their taxable income is 1,380,000. 20% of that is 276,000.
That is 276,000/1,500,000 = .184 and they actually pay 18.4% of their total income.

Notice that as income goes up so does the amount of taxes and the rate of taxation of total income. The more you make the higher your actual tax rate is with an upper limit of 20%.
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Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Perry's "Grand Bargain"

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As you would expect his proposal is leaning to the right. But it is a "Grand Bargain" proposal. If somebody on the left would put one out there we would have a starting point.

Although he still has a long way to go he just improved his stock with me.
At least he is thinking big.
None of the others (including Obama) seems to be doing that.
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Monday, October 24, 2011

Gadhafi’ death

For six months NATO conducted a mission to strategically protect Libyan civilians from Gadhafi’s troops. A mission which required the expedient tactic of backing a ragtag group of anti-Gadhafi rebels and a mission that was obviously going to continue until there was a regime change.

Now there are those who are indignant about the way Gadhafi was killed post capture. I will grudgingly concede their right to be indignant but, in my opinion, they have no right to be surprised.

Friday, October 21, 2011

Hillary

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A couple of days ago Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said we hoped that they would capture or kill Qaddafi. Then when she got word that he was dead, she said, "We came, we saw, and he died."

Perhaps Bill Clinton may have been luckier than we knew in the Monica tale.
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Wednesday, October 19, 2011

The Republican debate 10-18-11

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Long story short: Romney holds his own, Perry improves his performance and stays in the hunt,
Cain is, in Joel Sappenfield's description of one of my long ago chess moves, "preparing to lose".

Cain's 999 would shift the tax burden down the income scale.

He argues that it is not so because his whole program will eliminate a lot of hidden taxes that we are now paying, but don't know about. When presented with "studies that show" that it will raise taxes on the poor he says that people should do their own calculations and they will see. Hmmmmm I wanted to do my own calculations, but I had this very real problem: "How much do I save from not paying those hidden taxes that I don't know about?"

Next he will say that when he cuts those taxes on the producers, transporters, and retailers, then they are just naturally going to pass the savings onto us.

Monday, October 17, 2011

999

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In the Oct 2 monthly candidate’s report I wrote that someone would turn the 999 upside down and connect it to the Biblical "mark of the beast". I was expecting that to come from a comic, but it was actually Michelle Bachman who sprang it on the world in the Tues., October 11 debate. Well maybe I wasn’t wrong about what the source would be.

So what about the 999? Well, it was funny watching David Gregory on Meet the Press attempting to “explain” to Cain that his 9% sales tax would come on top of state taxes!!! Apparently David thinks that the current federal taxes do not come on top of state taxes.

Seriously though, the idea of replacing a very progressive income tax, which almost half of the people do not even have to pay, with a flat rate sales tax is considerably more regressive than I would like to see us go for. Cain is apparently betting that he can sell this as an approach that does not shift the burden of taxation from one group to another. Perhaps Cain should be forgiven for believing this since the public accepts so much mythology these days. But I think that this is a fairy tale too far.

I expect that when people understand it better they will not like it either. But the people who really won’t like it (the left) will, I expect, never have the chance to vote for it.

Saturday, October 15, 2011

I give them an A+

HHS has announced that the long term disability program (part of health reform) referred to as CLASS will be suspended indefinitely because it is not financially sustainable. This post is not about whether I like or dislike the proposed CLASS program. It is about applauding the HHS for the candid admission that, no matter how well intentioned the program is, the numbers don’t work so they are not going to do it.

You may see the details at the URL below

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-14/u-s-won-t-start-class-long-term-care-insurance-sebelius-says.html

Solyndra

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The Solyndra loan is starting to look really bad.

The situation: The "green" company Solyndra got into financial trouble. The government gave them a loan guarantee of 500+ million dollars. The company went bankrupt anyway.

So far that looks a little bit like croney capitalism. But it will probably be alright. It was a big company and of course, in the bankruptcy, the government will have priority over the private parties who, after all, were being saved by the government loan guarantee. Right?

Wrong, it turns out that the agreement provided that: To get our money back the government has to get in line BEHIND the private people that the government had been trying to help!!
This is pretty bad.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2011

NPV 6

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With respect to the NPV program to replace the Electoral College with a plurality election by a backdoor "amendment" to the Constitution.

After you consider the program on its merits (which I think are not good) you might want to consider how this would affect presidential elections.”

Here are 2 facts that might be a hint: Eight states and DC have adopted the NPV compact (CA, IL, MA, HI, WA, MD, NJ, DC, VT). In the last five elections every one of those 9 have voted for the same political party.

That is a highly unlikely coincidence. If it were a random choice of (5 times 9) = 45 selections of a binary choice the chances of them coming out the same in all 45 events is less than one in 16 trillion. That is 1 in 16,000,000,000,000.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Fairy Tales

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Thou shalt not follow a multitude to do evil;... Exodus 23:2

In this case the evil is that each side imagines that there is a simple solution if "they" would just do what "we" know that everybody should.

The Tea Party thinks that it is "over taxed." In response to the taxation question ("How much of one's earnings should a person be able to keep?), one of them recently said that you should be able to "keep all of what you earn". Zero taxation! Next they will ban death.

The Occupy Wall Street group apparently wants free stuff. (A sign said, "Free Health Care.") How to get it? Take it from the rich. I asked a liberal friend, "If you took all of the money the rich people had and gave it to the poor, then who would the poor work for?" You know the answer that I got: "If they had all of the rich people's money, then they wouldn't need to work."

Another group, another fairy tale.

Fairy tales are why we don't have compromise. Each side is so convinced of its own fairy tale that it is certain that, in the next election, the rest of us will finally wake up and realize how stupid that we have been all along not to see things as they see them. Then of course we will give them enough power to fully implement their "dream scheme".

Have you noticed how the right's description of the OWS is eerily similar to the left's description of the Tea Party? Substitute mob for racist and you have updated the complaint.
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Monday, October 10, 2011

California

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From the Daily beast: Illegal immigrants in California will be eligible for financial aid now that Gov. Jerry Brown signed the Dream Act. But at the same time, Brown vetoed a controversial bill that would have let public universities consider an applicant's race and sex in admission decisions. "I wholeheartedly agree with the goal of this legislation," Brown said in his veto message, but he thought that the courts, not the legislature, should decide on the affirmative action law. Brown is sifting through a flurry of legislation that passed the legislature at the end of the session; he must sign or veto 142 more bills before midnight on Sunday.

Read the entire article in the SF Chronicle.
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