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Wednesday, June 1, 2011

2012 Candidates - June-2011

Here are some possible candidates for the major party nominations for president in 2012.
The sequences in parentheses are my wild guesses about the percentage chance that each of them had monthly, Jan-current month, of getting the nomination. My principal reaction to each is listed afterword. If you will point out stuff to me I can improve this description over time.
The YAMSLT test can be found here.

Remember I am not a professional at this, just an interested citizen.

Democratic
Barack Obama (99) I will consider him (again).

Republican
Mitt Romney (25-25-26-24-25-28) I would consider him. Some say he has a problem in that the Romney health plan in MA is similar to Obama’s national plan. Some say that it is therefore a contradiction for Romney to oppose Obamacare is. I think not. But I don't know if he can make the case.
Tim Pawlenty (05-07-08-16-14-25) - I would consider him. A serious person. The most likely replacement for Daniels.
Sarah Palin (20-20-21-16-16-19) - A lightweight. Fails the YAMSLT.

Michelle Bachman (x-x-x-01-01-10) A lightweight. Fails the YAMSLT.
Jon Huntsman (x-x-1-1-01-05) Still don't know him.
Seems like serious people take him seriously.
I don't see how he wins the nomination though.

Newt Gingrich (4-4-4-4-03-03) - I would have considered him but he abandoned the 1st amendment. ……… his position on Park 51 not only that they should not, but that Muslims do NOT even have the right to, build there.
Ron Paul (x-x-x-x-01-02) (sorry I forgot him before)
Rick Santorum (x-x-x-01-02-1) - Too far right for me. Fails the YAMSLT.
Bobby Jindal (1-1-1-1- 1-01)- Fails the YAMSLT.
Jim Demint (1-1-1-1- 1-01) - Too far right for me.
Gary Johnson (x-x-x-x-01-01) Will highlight the drug prohibition issue.

Mitch Daniels (15-15-16-16-16-2) - I would consider him.
A serious person. Sorry to see him go.
Mike Huckabee (25-20-21-18-18-2) - Fails the YAMSLT.
Delighted to see him go.
Chris Christie – Says he’s not running. I would have considered him.
Is he reconsidering since Mitch dropped out?
Donald Trump - (x-x-x-x-0-out )- Will not be a credible candidate.
Haley Barbour – (0-0-0-0-out (as predicted here in February))
John Thune -Says he’s not running.
Mike Pence – Says he’s not running.
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Posted by Unknown at 6:00 AM
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