2012 Candidates - Oct - 2011

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Here are some possible candidates for the major party nominations for president in 2012.
The sequences in parentheses are my wild guesses about the percentage chance that each of them had monthly, Jan-current month, of getting the nomination. My principal reaction to each is listed afterword. If you will point out stuff to me I can improve this description over time.
The YAMSLT test can be found here.

Remember I am not a professional at this, just an interested citizen.

DEMOCRATIC
Barack Obama (99) I will consider him again, but he is worrying me.

REPUBLICAN
Mitt Romney (25-25-26-24-25-30-30-33-35-35) I would consider him. Some say he has a problem in that the Romney health plan in MA is similar to Obama’s national plan. Some say that it is therefore a contradiction for Romney to oppose Obamacare. I think not and I now think he can make the case.
Rick Perry (x-x-x-x-x-x-06-22-25-30-25) The predicted chance of implosion seems confirmed. He can recover though. The main questions now are: Does he pass the yamslt test? Is America ready for another brash Texas Governor? Is his jobs record that good? Can he correct his immigration problem? If he does recover it is still a two person race: Romney-Perry. (except see Christie)


Chris Christie (x-x ... x-x-10) He is thinking about it more than he lets on. He would make it a 3 person race. He might be strong. But, as Perry has demonstrated, you need what someone has called a long entrance ramp into a presidential race.

Newt Gingrich (4-4-4-4-03-03-01-01-1-10) - He has moved up a bit. I would have considered him but he abandoned the 1st amendment. ……… his position on Park 51 not only that they should not, but that Muslims do NOT even have the right to, build there.

Herman Cain (x-x-x-x-x-x-01-01-1-05) Still has a long way to go to be a serious candidate, but he does have a "program" - 9-9-9. Someone will soon point out that if you turn his plan upside down it is drummmrrrooollllll - 666- the mark of the beast.

Ron Paul (x-x-x-x-01-02-03-05-08-05)

Jon Huntsman (x-x-1-1-01-05-06-01-05) As I know him more, I like him more. I would consider him. Seems like serious people take him seriously. I don't see how he wins the nomination though. His plan is to put it all on New Hampshire. It might work.

Michelle Bachman (x-x-x-01-01-10-20-13-20-1) A lightweight. Fails YAMSLT. GWTW
Rick Santorum (x-x-x-01-02-01-01-01-1-1) - Too far right for me. Fails the YAMSLT.
Sarah Palin (20-20-21-16-16-19-3-01-1-1) - She is playing games. Fails the YAMSLT.
Tim Pawlenty (05-07-08-16-14-20-25-15-1-1) - GWTW
Gary Johnson (x-x-x-x-01-01-01-01-01-01) Will highlight the drug prohibition issue.

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