The “mess” referred to
below includes: a) the fact that (for
example) a gay couple who is legally married in say MA does not have SS
survivors benefits because of DOMA, b)
whether a gay couple married in one state can have their marriage recognized
in another state.
Prediction: What will the Court do?
1. They could declare that “the equal protection of the laws” principle
of
the 14th amendment prohibits
any restrictions of the rights of persons to marry. This would include disallowing DOMA and
removing from states the right to exclude homosexuals in their definition of
marriage. The conventional wisdom is
that the courts want something less profound than this and that they will not
do this. Nearly impossible.
2. They could declare DOMA unconstitutional and reaffirm the right of states to define marriage, leaving a
mess. Surely
not.
3. They could declare DOMA
unconstitutional and reaffirm the right of states to define marriage. Most likely. Hopefully they would also direct the Federal Government to review its laws
regarding marriage (Social Security et al) and to clean up the mess “with all
deliberate speed”.
4. They could do 3 with the caveat that the
Federal Government can, if it chooses, take to itself the right to define
marriage and revise the laws relating to marriage accordingly. Unlikely.
Two and 3 are my
least favorites.
