I disagree with Hightower.

What you will find here is: a centrist's view of current events;
a collection of thoughts, arguments, and observations
that I have found appealing and/or amusing over the years;
and, if you choose, your civil contributions which will make it into a conversation.

He not busy bein' born, is busy dyin'. - Bob Dylan

Please refer to participants only by their designated identities.

suggestion for US citizens: When a form asks for your race, write in: -- American

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Reckless Endangerment 3

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A critique of the book in this title (see July 5 post) can be found here.
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Friday, July 15, 2011

testing students

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Testing students is very widespread by those of us in (or formerly in) teaching. We use the results to measure how well our students have done their job and learned what we were teaching them. However, as a body we have vehemently opposed using the results on any standardized tests as an indication of how well WE were doing our job.

It appears that that has changed.

The NEA has finally come around to the view that how much your students learn might be a legitimate measure of how well you are teaching.

The next step is to get them to agree that those who do it better should get paid more and those who don't do it well should be removed from the classroom. (or do it without their agreement)
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Thursday, July 14, 2011

The Global Temper Tantrum

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In The Global Temper Tantrum Niall Ferguson pretty well nails the childishness which seems to dominate the money discussion these days. From the Republican assertion that even removing the most egregious tax breaks is a tax increase to Obama's "Don't call my bluff!"
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Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Napoleon’s March

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In the early seventies, my work on a PhD required that I demonstrate a reading knowledge of two foreign languages. The University of North Texas provided a course that was specifically designed to prepare the student to pass a test to demonstrate that knowledge.
The course was taught by a exquisitely well-dressed middle-aged man named Dr. Richard(?) Crowder. He was an outstanding teacher who treated our lack of interest in French as perfectly normal and made the course interesting for us and (presumably) bearable for him. He discussed concepts and French verbs in delightful terms. The subjunctive meant “might could”. “Sauter” meant “to jump” and therefore when the cook sautéed mushrooms he “jumped them in the skillet”.

The thing that I remember most was his telling us of Former French Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte’s escape from Elba (a small island off the western coast of Italy) to which he had been banished by the victorious English and their allies. It was believed that the restored monarchy would crush Napoleon’s little revolt, because he had only a few dozen supporters when he started.

The Paris newspaper Moniteur covered the story in 1815. Excerpts from their headlines include:

March 9 The Monster has escaped from his place of banishment.

March 10 The Corsican Ogre has landed at Cape Juan

March 11 … Troops are advancing on all sides to arrest his progress.

March 12 The Monster has advanced as far as Grenoble

March 13 The Tyrant is now at Lyon.

March 18 The Usurper [is] within 60 hours' march of the capital.

March 19 Bonaparte is advancing by forced marches, ….

March 20 Napoleon will arrive … .

March 21 The Emperor Napoleon is at Fountainebleu.

March 22 Yesterday evening His Majesty the Emperor made his public entry [into Paris]. Nothing can exceed the universal joy.

The story is that when Napoleon met the National Army he told his little band to wait and he went on alone, saying that if even one of his former soldiers was willing to shoot him then that was the way it should end. Instead, they fell upon him and wept for joy at his return.

The result of his little revolt was that he ruled France a few more months and caused the slaughter of many thousands in one more battle - Waterloo. For his second exile the British changed his status to closely watched prisoner on the remote island of St. Helena where he died in 1821.
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Monday, July 11, 2011

What would Andy do?

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Suppose that in 1833 Congress had adopted the following:
1. a tax measure that provided for not more than $80 million in revenue,
2. a budget that provided for at least $100 million in expenditures, and
3. a directive that the President not borrow any money.

What would be the proper response by President Andrew Jackson?
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Sunday, July 10, 2011

Truman and the bomb

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From the movie "Truman" (1995) (TV)
Harry S. Truman: If I don't drop the bomb, so many more of our young men will die in the invasion of Japan. Their men, too, and women and children. How can I face the people when it's finally over, and say that I had the power to possibly end the war, long ago, spare the lives of their loved ones, and I chose not to use it?
[pause]
Harry S. Truman: How could I look them in the face and tell them that?

Charlie Ross: Harry, you didn't come to me for common sense, you came to me for forgiveness. Do what you have to do. I'll still be your friend. But this is changing the course of history. You clinch the victory in the Pacific, but you sow the whirlwind.
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Friday, July 8, 2011

Hidden Meanings

.(This was revised 10 am CST.)
Some students have trouble understanding that the beauty of poetry includes the subtle use of language and are in danger of believing that it is all a bunch hooey concocted by English professors. One such professor of my acquaintance used to introduce the poetry section in his general education literature classes by playing off of that attitude and (perhaps) putting the students at ease. He began by acting as if poetry was indeed a bunch of hooey. Day one began something like this.

“This here’s your poem.
The purpose of your poem is to obscure meaning.
To find the hidden meanings there are hints at the bottom of the page.
These hints are numbered.
One, two, three are your little numbers.
Seven, eight, nine are your big numbers.”

Probably, like most of these little maneuvers that we come up with, it works better sometimes than others.

I’m sure that you have seen articles from the right about how Obama is not merely wrong, but what he really wants to do is … list your method of choice … and destroy the Republic. Here is another hidden meaning example, this time from the other side wherein Michele Bachman does not merely want to do what she says she does, but really plans to destroy any semblance of social justice in America.

In modern American politics these presentations serve to demonize the opposition and make them appear outside the mainstream and therefore unacceptable. They also contribute mightily to the current sorry state of our politics where winning is more important than governing.

Perhaps these two things are connected by Mario Cuomo's observation that, "You campaign in poetry, but you govern in prose."

But now we don't govern at all, we just win elections.
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Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Reckless Endangerment 2

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The housing bubble mentioned yesterday has provided us with another example of the stasis fallacy. Again, we assumed that changing the rules (home mortgage regulations) would not have an impact on the individuals who were involved in the process.

My first encounter with the stasis fallacy was the flawed welfare system as described recently by Barack Obama : "Well, you know, here's what I would say. I think we should acknowledge that some welfare programs in the past were not well designed and in some cases did encourage dependency. As somebody who worked in low income neighborhoods, I've seen it, where people weren't encouraged to work, weren't encouraged to upgrade their skills, were just getting a check, and, over time, their motivation started to diminish. And I think even if you're progressive you've got to acknowledge that some of these things have not been well designed."

I am impressed by that straight forward acknowledgement.
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Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Reckless Endangerment

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"Put on asbestos mittens and pick up “Reckless Endangerment,” the scalding new book by Gretchen Morgenson, a New York Times columnist, and Joshua Rosner, a housing finance expert."

From a review by George Will of a book on the current unpleasantness that one might say "resonates with reality".

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Sunday, July 3, 2011

playing chicken

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Fareed, whom I like, seems to be moving to the left.

Fareed Zakaria says: But as you watch the dangerous game of chicken in Washington, it is easy to conclude that the U.S. has lost a serious governing class and has become a place where ideology and talk-radio rhetoric have replaced the business of governance. That Republicans would consider playing games with America's creditworthiness is not simply terrible public policy but also, as Richard Stengel pointed out in the previous issue of TIME, almost certainly unconstitutional.

Fareed apparently doesn't know that it takes two to play chicken.

One characteristic of current liberals is the belief that if the debt limit is not raised, then the things that don't get paid must be our loans and interest. They apparently cannot concieve of not paying something else - like say - part of the SS for people whose incomes are over 50K; subsidies to oil companies, farmers etc.; payments for medicare for people whose incomes are over 50K.

I am liberal enough to not want to do those things, but rational enough to recognize that those possibilities do exists and might be better actions than defaulting on debt.
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Saturday, July 2, 2011

North Carolina redistricts

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Regardless of whether you like this particular example of it, I hope you would agree that we need to put an end to political redistricting. There are programs in use which would do these redistricting things based on whatever criteria you choose, for example governmental substructures- counties, cities, precincts etc.
To really find out about it google computer redistricting.

By: Michael Barone
North Carolina is unique among the states in that under the state Constitution the governor cannot veto a redistricting plan passed by the legislature. This means that Democratic Governor Beverly Perdue cannot veto this congressional redistricting plan produced by the Republican-controlled Senate and House redistricting committees and likely to be passed by both houses.

Currently the North Carolina House delegation is made up of 6 Republicans and 7 Democrats. The redistricting plan creates 3 overwhelmingly Democratic districts (the 1st, 4th and 12th) and 10 districts in which Republican Senator Richard Burr received at least 59% of the vote in November 2010 and in which John McCain received at least 55% of the vote in November 2008. This puts in jeopardy the seats of the 7th district’s Mike McIntyre, the 8th district’s Larry Kissell, the 11th district’s Heath Shuler (who reportedly is weighing an offer to become athletic director at the University of Tennessee, where he was a football star) and the 13th district’s Brad Miller (who was on the redistricting committee 10 years ago). Republicans have the potential, but not the assurance, of gaining 4 seats.

In the 7th district—previous version 52% McCain, new version 55% McCain—Democrat Mike McIntyre beat Republican challenger Ilario Pantano 54%-46% in 2010. The redistricting removes most of Robeson County (with its large population of blacks and Lumbee Indians) and the Democratic area around Fayetteville and adds Onslow County, home of the Marine Corps’s Camp Lejeune. This could help Marine veteran Pantano.

The 8th district goes from 52% Obama to 55% McCain; Democrat Larry Kissell won 53%-43% last time after a controversial Republican primary. The district no longer contains black precincts in Charlotte.

The 11th district loses the increasingly liberal city of Asheville and adds four heavily Republican counties. In the process a 52% McCain district becomes a 58% McCain district, with the second highest McCain percentage of any of North Carolina’s 13 districts. It’s rumored that incumbent Heath Shuler is weighing an offer to become athletic director at the University of Tennessee, where he was a star quarterback. That looks like it would give Shuler more power and tenure; in the House he’s on the outs with the Democratic leadership because of his open opposition to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The 13th district has seen the sharpest transformation, from a 59%-40% Obama district to a 56%-43% McCain district. The Supreme Court recently ruled that states are not required to create near-minority-majority districts (i.e., those with large numbers but not a majority of blacks or Hispanics) to comply with the Voting Rights Act. This was one such district; the Republican redistricters clearly placed many of the old 13th’s blacks in the heavily Democratic 4th district.



Read more at the Washington Examiner.

Friday, July 1, 2011

2012 Candidates - July-2011

Sorry I let this get up here before I was able to update it.
Here are some possible candidates for the major party nominations for president in 2012.
The sequences in parentheses are my wild guesses about the percentage chance that each of them had monthly, Jan-current month, of getting the nomination. My principal reaction to each is listed afterword. If you will point out stuff to me I can improve this description over time.
The YAMSLT test can be found here.

Remember I am not a professional at this, just an interested citizen.

Democratic
Barack Obama (99) I will consider him again, but he is worrying me.

Republican
Mitt Romney (25-25-26-24-25-30) I would consider him. Some say he has a problem in that the Romney health plan in MA is similar to Obama’s national plan. Some say that it is therefore a contradiction for Romney to oppose Obamacare is. I think not and I now think he can make the case.
Tim Pawlenty (05-07-08-16-14-20-25) - I would consider him. A serious person. The most likely replacement for Daniels.
Michelle Bachman (x-x-x-01-01-10-20) A lightweight. Fails YAMSLT
Jon Huntsman (x-x-1-1-01-05-06) As I know him more, I like him more. I would consider him. Seems like serious people take him seriously.
I don't see how he wins the nomination though.

Rick Perry (x-x-x-x-x-x-06)Would be a serious candidate. But is America ready for another brash Texas Governor? Is his Jobs record that good?
Sarah Palin (20-20-21-16-16-19-6) - She is playjng games. Fails the YAMSLT.
Ron Paul (x-x-x-x-01-02-03) (sorry I forgot him before)
Herman Cain (x-x-x-x-x-x-01) Has a long way to go to be a serious cand.

Newt Gingrich (4-4-4-4-03-03-01) - I would have considered him but he abandoned the 1st amendment. ……… his position on Park 51 not only that they should not, but that Muslims do NOT even have the right to, build there.
Rick Santorum (x-x-x-01-02-01-01) - Too far right for me. Fails the YAMSLT.
Gary Johnson (x-x-x-x-01-01-01) Will highlight the drug prohibition issue.

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Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Charlie Wilson

Good-Time Charlie Wilson


By Karen Tumulty Wednesday, February 10, 2010
From Texas comes word that Charlie Wilson’s heart–his second–finally gave out. Which wasn’t all that surprising, when you considered how much he had lived. If you measured Charlie Wilson’s life in years, it came to only 76. But if you looked at the number of miles the former Texas Congressman put on his odometer, well, that added up to more than most men could manage in three lifetimes.

Charlie Wilson was the kind of man who would declare on 60 Minutes: “I just love stickin’ it to the Russians.” The kind of man who would make a fact-finding trip through Pakistan, taking his then-girlfriend, a former Miss World USA, in tow. And then, when the Defense Intelligence Agency refused to ferry her, he was the kind who would use his position on the House Appropriations Committee to slash the funding for two DIA planes, and have them transferred to the national guard instead. His House colleagues used to say Charlie Wilson was the only person they had ever met who could strut while sitting down. And, yet, he also managed to get elected 12 times from Lufkin, Texas–a town so socially conservative that it didn’t vote to allow alcohol sales until 2006, which was 73 years after the rest of the country ended Prohibition.

Pretty much everyone else who ever met him developed a fondness for Charlie Wilson. They just couldn’t help it. The columnist Molly Ivins once pondered how it was that a liberal feminist such as herself could love such an unreconstructed chauvinist so very, very much. “I’ve been worrying about my fitness to write for Ms. Magazine on account of I like Charlie Wilson,” she wrote in that magazine in 1988. “Good Lord, that is embarrassing. Congressman Wilson is the Hunter Thompson of the House of Representatives; a gonzo politician. He’s a sexist and has made war a spectator sport. By way of redeeming social value, he’s funny, a good congressman for his district, and hasn’t an ounce of hypocrisy. … I called Wilson to ask him why we like him, thinking he might know. He said: `Feminists like me because I am an unapologetic sexist, chauvinist redneck … who … votes with ‘em every time. I have proven that I can vote with ‘em without kissing their ass. I try not to let ‘em know I vote with ‘em; it’s more fun to have ‘em mad at me.’ ”

When they made a movie a few years back about how Charlie had secretly funded the ouster of the Soviets from Afghanistan, Tom Hanks played him. And Hanks did it just the way Charlie had wanted, right down to the opening scene. In 1990, which was sixteen years before the movie hit the screen, Charlie had told Washington Post reporter Tom Kenworthy that he wanted it to start with him in a hot tub with two Las Vegas showgirls, even as a fruitless Justice Department investigation of him was under way. “It would be a lot better movie if I was retired,” Charlie had told Kenworthy. “Or if I moved into the witness protection program. Then it’d be one hell of a movie.”

It turned out to be a hell of a movie anyway, because it was about a hell of a life. Fact is, no one could have made up a character like Charlie Wilson.

UPDATE: Carl Hulse notes the congruity in the passing of Charlie Wilson and John Murtha in the same week.:

The pair had a connection that goes far deeper than their expertise at playing the inside game in Congress to full advantage for themselves and their pet interests.

As recounted in the book, “Charlie Wilson’s War,” then Speaker Thomas P. “Tip” O’Neill asked the colorful Mr. Wilson to take a spot on the House ethics committee to help shut down an inquiry into Mr. Murtha, who had gotten caught up in the Abscam bribery investigation. Mr. Murtha wasn’t prosecuted for his role, but the internal watchdog committee was looking into whether he broke House rules by not reporting a bribery attempt.

In the book written with Mr. Wilson’s cooperation by investigative journalist George Crile, Mr. Wilson agreed to take the seat on the ethics panel in return for appointment to the board of the Kennedy Center, which would provide him with plenty of access to exclusive entertainment events. The inquiry was quickly derailed, leading the chief investigator to resign.

“It was the best deal I ever made,” Mr. Wilson told Mr. Crile. “I only had to be on Ethics for a year, and I get to stay on the Kennedy Center for life.”

Mr. Wilson and Mr. Murtha went on to cooperate closely in providing secret funding for the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan, and Mr. Murtha’s role in helping engineer that embarrassing defeat by the mujahedeen was noted in obituaries this week.

UPDATE2: Commenter Jamie Dunham offers this personal recollection:

I grew up in Lufkin and cannot remember a time without Charlie Wilson. I can see him now walking down Main Street. He was a colorful and loved character, as evidenced by the years he served in office. He recently took the time to talk to my son who was writing a college paper on Afghanistan. Everyone in the district knew that Charlie would take your call, find out about your Social Security check and listen to your views. He will be missed.


Read more

Sunday, June 26, 2011

gay marriage

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Congratulations to New York on legalizing gay marriage.

This has been a very hard issue for me and I have had to come a long way on it over the past 30 years.

I have finally come so far as to be willing to support a court decision based on equal protection of the laws.

However, I am very glad that it is being done legislatively which is much firmer evidence of acceptance.
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Saturday, June 25, 2011

How to spend the peace dividend?

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An article in the NY Times talks about the end of the surge in Afghanistan and asks the question in the title.

Now exactly how does that "war dividend" thing work?
I think it goes like this.

We go to war.
We raise taxes to pay for the war.
The war is over.
The taxes are NOT cancelled.
We have revenue to spend.
A dividend.

That image is the haze of obfuscation that surrounds the Times article.

It is true that the war taxes will not be cancelled.
But that is because there were no war taxes in the first place.
We borrowed the billions to pay for the surge.
There is no dividend just an illusion, an excuse to borrow and spend more.

This is the mind set that got us into the fiscal trouble that we are in.

Watch out for the other side of this tragi-comedy of irresponsibility, though. They may just agree that there is a dividend and we need to cut taxes to absorb it!
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Friday, June 24, 2011

Tax code expenditures 2

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We are subsidizing ethanol and other energy sources so that they can compete with oil.

But we are also presently subsidizing oil companies. A proposal came to the Senate that we should stop that activity. Senato Wicker (R of Mississippi) voted against it and said: "The suggestion that the appropriate response to soaring gasoline prices is greater taxation upon the companies that produce gasoline runs counter to common sense."

That is, Wicker argues that to stop a subsidy is an increase in taxes.

So much for the notion that the debt was all the Democrats doing.
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Thursday, June 23, 2011

comments problem

So Tom tell us again how are you making the comments thing work?

Russell on thought

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Men fear thought as they fear nothing else on earth -- more than ruin -- more even than death.... Thought is subversive and revolutionary, destructive and terrible, thought is merciless to privilege, established institutions, and comfortable habit. Thought looks into the pit of hell and is not afraid. Thought is great and swift and free, the light of the world, and the chief glory of man.
Bertrand Russell
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Wednesday, June 22, 2011

What the U.S. Can Learn from Sweden

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Sweden has long been a illustration for the left of how their policies can work. From looking at the article (see below) by Anders Borg and Johnny Munkhammarthat who are in the Swedish government, it appears that they have moved a bit to the right. Perhaps all sides might learn a lot from Sweden, especially about putting aside our game playing and dealing with real problems. The article was on realclearpolitics recently.

What the U.S. Can Learn from Sweden
By Anders Borg & Johnny Munkhammer

The policy debate in the United States is presently focused on solving serious budget problems. This situation has deep roots in the debt crisis - so far hitting Greece, Ireland and Portugal the worst. What should the U.S. do?

Today, northern Europe is leading its region out of the recession. The region is open to trade and has flexible markets, innovative industries, well-functioning institutions and a high degree of social cohesion. Protectionism is very limited; structural change in the business sector is welcomed even by trade unions.

The Swedish economy is performing well, with a GDP growth rate of 5.5 percent in 2010 and employment growth of 2.5 percent this year. While other countries struggle with deficits of five to ten percent of GDP and debt levels approaching 100 percent, Sweden will achieve a budget surplus this year and the debt will fall below 40 percent. If the United States had the same unemployment level as Sweden, several million fewer people would be out of work today.

What explains the Swedish success story? Why was Sweden, according to the World Economic Forum, the world's second most competitive country in 2010? The answers can be found in our socially cohesive reform strategy, based on four key parts.

The first priority of the current center-right government has been to move people from welfare into work. When elected in 2006, nearly a fifth of the working-age population was outside the labor market and faced very high marginal tax rates. To help this group back into employment, we have made work pay by substantially reducing income taxes - particularly, through the introduction of earned income tax credits, for low- and middle-income earners - and reforming benefits systems. Employment is now growing faster than in most other OECD countries, and total employment is reaching an all-time high.

Second, we have focused on reforming the educational system and improving the situation of groups with weak employment prospects. Schooling and vocational training must impart individuals with the knowledge and skills to make them productive in a modern economy. We have reduced the employer costs of companies, especially for those who hire workers who have been unemployed for long periods, making those workers more attractive. Marginalized groups have thus been helped to establish themselves in the labor market.

Third, a strong commitment to sound public finances meant that Sweden entered the down-turn with a surplus. This allowed the government to pursue an expansive but responsible fiscal policy, while letting extensive automatic stabilizers work. At the same time, our reforms have reduced transfer payments by two percentage points of GDP between 2006 and 2011.

The fiscal policy framework, with an expenditure ceiling and a surplus target, introduced in the mid-1990s, remains a corner-stone of economic policy. Achieving the surplus target of one percent of GDP over the business cycle is the overriding priority, and the expenditure ceiling has never been breached. With a credible fiscal policy in place, households and firms have not had to adjust investment and consumption decisions. Sweden has been able to avoid the cuts to public services and welfare provision which are now taking place in most OECD economies.

Fourth, pro-growth reforms have been pursued. Markets have been de-regulated, state-owned companies sold, competition introduced in health care and education - through school vouchers - and reforms to the pension system have made it demographically sustainable. The wealth and inheritance taxes have been abolished. Furthermore, we have initiated reforms stimulating entrepreneurship as well as research and development.

Social inclusion matters, especially in tough times. Our reforms have targeted both the demand side and supply side of the economy, and the ultimate objective has been to improve the position of socio-economically weaker groups. Strengthening social cohesion by increasing labor force participation has been our mantra.

During our reform process we have learned from others, just as Sweden hopefully has illustrated that successful reform is possible, and that it brings both economic and political advantages. The current government was re-elected in 2010 with a greater share of the votes, a phenomenon which is more common than sometimes believed.

Some strategic lessons: Be well-prepared and launch reforms soon after an election, so results will materialize well before the next election. Make significant changes in order to have substantial results. Focus on real problems that citizens perceive as important, and never lose the grip on sound public finances.
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Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Juneteenth

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June 19 was the day that it was officially announced in Texas that the slaves were freed.

The state of Texas is widely considered the first U.S. state to begin Juneteenth celebrations with informal observances taking place for over a century; it has been an official state holiday since 1980. As of June 2011, 39 states and the District of Columbia have recognized Juneteenth as either a state holiday or state holiday observance.

Though Abraham Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclamation on September 22, 1862, with an effective date of January 1, 1863, it had minimal immediate effect on most slaves’ day-to-day lives.

Juneteenth commemorates June 18 and 19, 1865. June 18 is the day Union General Gordon Granger and 2,000 federal troops arrived in Galveston, Texas, to take possession of the state and enforce the emancipation of its slaves. On June 19, 1865, legend has it, Granger publicly read the contents of “General Order No. 3”, which announced that the slaves were free.
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