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Thursday, May 27, 2010

The stasis fallacy

If you change the rules of an activity and do NOT consider the possibility that this will cause a change in the behavior of the players, then you have made a logical error. I am going to call this the stasis fallacy. For example: Bankers were long known for being hard-nosed and careful about lending money. The reason was simple: they were responsible for the outcomes. Suppose you change the rules and allow them to make loans and arrange a buyer so that they can immediately sell those loans. Suppose I then assume that that same banker will, in this new environment, operate with the same vigilance about those loans that he did previously. Then I am making the stasis fallacy.
Posted by Unknown at 9:34 PM
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3 comments:

  1. TomMay 29, 2010 at 9:54 AM

    Thanks, this needed a name! However, it will be difficult for me to change my venacular. Now I will have to tell people they have committed a stasis fallacy instead of just calling them a "Dumb A**".

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  2. RobJune 9, 2010 at 11:20 AM

    I first heard Wayne talk about the stasis fallacy in reference to the 2000 presidential election. At the time, I think many Gore supporters complained that Gore would have won if the race had been decided by the popular vote. Most who made this complaint were probably assuming that Bush and Gore would have campaigned in the same way and that the vote outcome would have been the same under this different set of rules... I guess that makes them stasis fallacists.

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  3. TomJune 12, 2010 at 8:17 AM

    The 2000 election caused many to advocate for the election of Presidents by popular vote. If we had elections by popular vote in 2000 would we have been recounting undervotes in the entire US and not just Florida?

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