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Friday, November 26, 2010

not quite 3 bad predictions

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LeRoy Pope Walker, from Alabama, was the first Secretary of War of the Confederate States of America. After the initial secession of seven states, he was a commissioner to Tennessee to urge them to withdraw as well. In denigrating the possibility that the Union would attempt to coerce the South as a result of secession he stated that,

“All of the blood shed in the (threatened) Civil War could be wiped up with a pocket handkerchief.”

The death toll was over 600,000 from a country of about 30 million.
A comparable death toll in the country today would be 6,000,000.
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4 comments:

  1. In the build-up to the Iraq war, Gen. Eric Shinseki estimated that we'd need "several hundred thousand" troops to secure and rebuild Iraq. Paul Wolfowitz contradicted that estimate, saying it was "wildly off the mark." Apparently he was a little hard to pin down with a precise prediction, but I believe Pentagon estimates at the time were more on the lines of 100,000 troops. Does this constitute a bad prediction on Wolfowitz' part?

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  2. Yeah, maybe so. But then again, maybe the surge demonstrated that neither was correct -- Shinseki's estimate was a little high, Wolfowitz' a little low.

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  3. But neither's error was in the ball park of Walker's.

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