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Friday, April 20, 2012

Is the Affordable Care Act constitutional?

For those of you who cannot wait until June I thought that I would go ahead and tell you how the Supreme Court will rule on this question. (I am not an attorney, but I once had dinner with one.)

The decision will be yes, the ACA is constitutional.

The rationale will be as follows:

1. Clearly the government has a right to require a citizen to pay for health care via taxation. In fact, with Medicare the government requires a 20 year old citizen to pay taxes for health care that he will not even begin to receive until 45 years later.

2. The ACA mandate is a tax* by another name.

3. The court will not overturn a major piece of legislation on the basis of semantics.

A long shot: The yes vote will be at least 6 and the opinion will be written by the CJ.

However it goes, which ever side loses this argument will have their supporters outraged by the loss and they may find a silver lining in the fall election.

Check back here in June when I will either crow or eat crow.

*Perhaps it was not labeled a tax because its authors had promised not to raise taxes.


  1. Luke Jackson (Paul Newman) In “Cool Hand Luke” asserted that he could eat a large number of boiled eggs to which Dragline (George Kennedy) responded “did you have to say 50”.

    Predicting a SCOTUS margin upholding the ACA mandate is OK but did you have to say 6.

  2. Remember, I said it was a long shot.

  3. Long shot sure, but Luke did eat the 50 eggs.