I disagree with Hightower.

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Tuesday, May 29, 2012


They tell me that China is going to continue to roar on and leave us in the dust.  After all, they've been growing at 10% per year for thirty years.  Some say they are already ahead of us.

I don't doubt that China will be our long term competitor (hopefully not enemy). But I don't see it as that big a problem.  Not nearly as big as our debt problem for example.

For one thing exponential growth (10% per year of what is there) of "living entities" requires an unlimited amount of resources.  No one has that.
For another thing, they are already pushing the limits of how long developing countries have been able to sustain growth as they move into the modern world.
Finally all of those people are moving up to a better standard of living.  They will want even more as time goes by.  Those who are currently living the "Chinese good life" make up far fewer than half of the whole population.  It will get more and more difficult to increase the number of seats at the modern table.

Projections are very useful, but they are no better than the validity of their assumptions.  When you hear these magnificent projections keep in mind the story that Mark Twain used to tell about the Mississippi River.  If you have ever looked at a map of the river you will notice a lot of double backs and loops.  Frequently the river will cut off one of those loops and make the river shorter.  Twain noted that, based on projections of this shortening,  in less than a hundred years St. Louis would be only eighty six miles from New Orleans.

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