Settled Science 2

The quote below is from comments Obama recently made in the Central Valley in CA.  It is an example of what I consider fear mongering by the misstatement/misuse of scientific finding.

"We have to be clear: A changing climate means that weather-related disasters like droughts, wildfires, storms, floods are potentially going to be costlier and they're going to be harsher," the President said visiting a farm in Los Banos. "Droughts have obviously been a part of life out here in the West since before any of us were around and water politics in California have always been complicated, but scientific evidence shows that a changing climate is going to make them more intense."

Let me comment on 2 sentences:

1.     “A changing climate means that weather-related disasters like droughts, wildfires, storms, floods are potentially going to be costlier and they're going to be harsher," 

A changing climate does not mean that at all.  It simple means the climate will change.  Indeed, If climate changes to warmer (than today) the atmosphere would have the ability to hold and transport more moisture.  The increased moisture might be transported somewhere else or it might fall as rain on Los Banos.  “Warmer” and “droughts” are not interchangeable words.  The warmest parts of the globe today are around the equator and they are statistically the wettest. Storms - There is significant evidence (real scientific evidence) that the capacity of the atmosphere to hold more moisture would actually decrease the harshness of weather events. Increased flooding – this one might be true but it is hotly debated on whether the increased atmospheric moisture would stay in the clouds or fall as rain, not to mention where it would fall. 

2.     "Droughts have obviously been a part of life out here in the West since before any of us were around and water politics in California have always been complicated, but scientific evidence shows that a changing climate is going to make them more intense."

Assuming that the subject of “them” is droughts and not politics it may/may not be true. To support a scientific theory the existence of scientific evidence may be necessary, but it is not sufficient. On balance I have seen published scientific evidence from credible sources that the Southern CA climate would be wetter in a warmer climate model.

Open questions for the blog:

1.     Who decided that the optimum temperature for the globe occurred somewhere around 1975?

2.     Worldwide (and in the US) more people die yearly from cold related conditions than warm.  From a humanitarian point of view should we not be hoping for a warmer climate?

3.     Records show that global temperatures increased from 1850 until 1997.  I will assert as an obvious consequence (without referencing scientific findings) that the global gross growing season must have increased as a result.  Why is that a bad thing?

4.     One of the most arid (least precipitation per year) place on the globe is Antarctica.  Why is there an almost universal tendency to equate drought with warmer climate?

5.     Heat is energy.  I repeatedly hear that storms in a warmer world would be more severe due to the increased energy level.  From my 9^th grade general science class I recall that heat engines (a T-storm is basically a heat engine) do NOT operate on heat rather they operate on heat differential.  How does the heat differential increase if the global temperature rises?